Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
